Orange County Register

So we know that revenue projections for the new Measure M are down $5.2 billion. But how did the first Measure M do on delivering the cash that was promised?

Drum roll, please….

First, let’s point out that M1 (as the original half-cent transportation sales tax is lovingly called by officials at the Orange County Transportation Authority), has a major structural difference from M2: 

• M1 (approved in 1990) was for 20 years. It will expire in 2011.
• M2 (approved in 2006) is for 30 years. It will expire in 2041.

So, M2 lasts 50 percent longer than M1. Which means that whatever mist and fog surround predictions of how much money will be raised 20 years hence only thicken when trying to predict 30 years hence. That said:

• When M1 was hawked to voters in 1990, officials said it would raise $3.1 billion over the 20 years.
• When M1 ends in 2011, its total take will be about …$4.26 billion - some 33 percent more than originally predicted.
• To date, M1 has already raised $3.3 billion.

Does this suggest that M2 will perform as well, despite the current predictions? Only time will tell….

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